Please read the README file in this repository.

Analysis of the most affected countries in Africa⮸

Cross-country comparison over absolute dates⮸

Confirmed⮸

Dead⮸

Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸

Active⮸

Cross-country comparison with approximately aligned start days⮸

Confirmed⮸

Dead⮸

Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸

Active⮸

Per-country analysis with exponential and sigmoidal projections, and new cases analysis⮸

IMPORTANT: The projections are only accurate if the fit is good (it often isn't), and assuming nothing changes going forward. The sigmoid is omitted if a reasonable fit can't be computed, but this still doesn't mean that the fit is good if it is shown.

The dashed lines show best fit projections from a few previous days for comparison.

Djibouti⮸

Population $988,000$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-18 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $3,194$ on 2020-05-30

Best fit exponential: \(129 \times 10^{0.018t}\) (doubling rate \(16.3\) days)

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-04-10 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $22$ on 2020-05-30

Best fit exponential: \(0.154 \times 10^{0.042t}\) (doubling rate \(7.1\) days)

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-18 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $1,886$ on 2020-05-30

Algeria⮸

Population $43,851,044$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-15 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $9,267$ on 2020-05-30

Best fit exponential: \(724 \times 10^{0.015t}\) (doubling rate \(20.0\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{12,079.0}{1 + 10^{-0.027 (t - 58.3)}}\) (asimptote \(12,079.0\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-18 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $646$ on 2020-05-30

Best fit exponential: \(131 \times 10^{0.010t}\) (doubling rate \(29.5\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{573.0}{1 + 10^{-0.047 (t - 28.6)}}\) (asimptote \(573.0\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-17 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $3,072$ on 2020-05-30

Congo (Kinshasa)⮸

Population $5,518,087$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-19 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $2,966$ on 2020-05-30

Best fit exponential: \(52.7 \times 10^{0.024t}\) (doubling rate \(12.5\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{44,171.9}{1 + 10^{-0.025 (t - 119.0)}}\) (asimptote \(44,171.9\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-21 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $69$ on 2020-05-30

Best fit exponential: \(8.79 \times 10^{0.013t}\) (doubling rate \(22.6\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{124.9}{1 + 10^{-0.020 (t - 63.8)}}\) (asimptote \(124.9\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-19 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $2,469$ on 2020-05-30

South Africa⮸

Population $59,308,690$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-16 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $30,967$ on 2020-05-30

Best fit exponential: \(447 \times 10^{0.024t}\) (doubling rate \(12.4\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{417,749.1}{1 + 10^{-0.025 (t - 119.8)}}\) (asimptote \(417,749.1\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-04-03 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $643$ on 2020-05-30

Best fit exponential: \(17.9 \times 10^{0.027t}\) (doubling rate \(11.2\) days)

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-16 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $14,208$ on 2020-05-30

Egypt⮸

Population $102,334,404$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $23,449$ on 2020-05-30

Best fit exponential: \(517 \times 10^{0.021t}\) (doubling rate \(14.2\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{89,651.2}{1 + 10^{-0.024 (t - 97.6)}}\) (asimptote \(89,651.2\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-22 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $913$ on 2020-05-30

Best fit exponential: \(82.5 \times 10^{0.015t}\) (doubling rate \(19.8\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{1,098.1}{1 + 10^{-0.028 (t - 51.0)}}\) (asimptote \(1,098.1\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-16 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $16,843$ on 2020-05-30

Equatorial Guinea⮸

Population $1,402,985$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-18 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $1,306$ on 2020-05-30

Best fit exponential: \(21.7 \times 10^{0.024t}\) (doubling rate \(12.4\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{2,330.4}{1 + 10^{-0.033 (t - 72.1)}}\) (asimptote \(2,330.4\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-04-22 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $12$ on 2020-05-30

Best fit exponential: \(1.32 \times 10^{0.027t}\) (doubling rate \(11.3\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{15.3}{1 + 10^{-0.056 (t - 26.4)}}\) (asimptote \(15.3\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-18 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $1,094$ on 2020-05-30

Mauritius⮸

Population $1,271,768$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-18 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $335$ on 2020-05-30

Best fit exponential: \(162 \times 10^{0.005t}\) (doubling rate \(55.3\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{333.7}{1 + 10^{-0.103 (t - 15.2)}}\) (asimptote \(333.7\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-21 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $10$ on 2020-05-30

Best fit exponential: \(5.31 \times 10^{0.005t}\) (doubling rate \(60.8\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{9.8}{1 + 10^{-0.081 (t - 11.8)}}\) (asimptote \(9.8\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-18 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $3$ on 2020-05-30

Gabon⮸

Population $2,225,734$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-20 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $2,655$ on 2020-05-30

Best fit exponential: \(19.6 \times 10^{0.030t}\) (doubling rate \(10.0\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{4,045.5}{1 + 10^{-0.047 (t - 66.1)}}\) (asimptote \(4,045.5\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-20 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $17$ on 2020-05-30

Best fit exponential: \(0.6 \times 10^{0.020t}\) (doubling rate \(14.8\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{17.6}{1 + 10^{-0.043 (t - 54.2)}}\) (asimptote \(17.6\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-21 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $1,916$ on 2020-05-30

Recovering countries that had over 300 active cases at peak⮸

List of all recovering countries (the top 4 not covered above are also analyzed below)⮸

Niger recovered 86%
Chad recovered 44%
Morocco recovered 35%

Niger⮸

Population $24,206,644$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-30 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $956$ on 2020-05-30

Best fit exponential: \(355 \times 10^{0.008t}\) (doubling rate \(37.7\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{896.6}{1 + 10^{-0.052 (t - 14.9)}}\) (asimptote \(896.6\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-30 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $64$ on 2020-05-30

Best fit exponential: \(10.8 \times 10^{0.014t}\) (doubling rate \(22.1\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{74.4}{1 + 10^{-0.032 (t - 35.7)}}\) (asimptote \(74.4\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-04-01 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $74$ on 2020-05-30

Chad⮸

Population $16,425,864$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-04-12 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $759$ on 2020-05-30

Best fit exponential: \(46.9 \times 10^{0.026t}\) (doubling rate \(11.5\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{822.2}{1 + 10^{-0.064 (t - 33.1)}}\) (asimptote \(822.2\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-04-28 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $65$ on 2020-05-30

Best fit exponential: \(15.5 \times 10^{0.021t}\) (doubling rate \(14.1\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{64.1}{1 + 10^{-0.097 (t - 13.1)}}\) (asimptote \(64.1\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-04-13 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $224$ on 2020-05-30

Morocco⮸

Population $36,910,560$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-17 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $7,780$ on 2020-05-30

Best fit exponential: \(946 \times 10^{0.013t}\) (doubling rate \(22.6\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{8,078.0}{1 + 10^{-0.038 (t - 42.0)}}\) (asimptote \(8,078.0\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-22 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $204$ on 2020-05-30

Best fit exponential: \(65.9 \times 10^{0.008t}\) (doubling rate \(37.0\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{193.2}{1 + 10^{-0.054 (t - 20.4)}}\) (asimptote \(193.2\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-18 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $2,175$ on 2020-05-30